Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Recap

MLB · July 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 54% against FanDuel's implied 56% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.8pp · closed at 1.74 (57.5%)

Small Play

Baltimore Orioles

Model 54%

Market 56%

Edge +2.8 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

53.9% —

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