Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · July 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Los Angeles Dodgers WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Dodgers at 48% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.6pp · closed at 2.02 (49.5%)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Model
48%
Market
49%
Edge
+2.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.6%
—
+ Season record + form
55.3%
+2.7pp
Calibration offset
53.5%
-1.8pp
Platt rescale
46.2%
-7.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.5%
-2.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.6%
+4.1pp
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