Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · July 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 52% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 1.92 (52.1%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
52%
Market
53%
Edge
+2.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
58.6%
—
Calibration offset
55.9%
-2.7pp
Platt rescale
48.9%
-7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
47.5%
-1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.6%
+4.1pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.