New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap
MLB · July 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 1.96 (51.0%)
New York Mets
-110 on FanDuel
Model
51%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.2 pts
Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (1.91).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
50.7%
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