Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · July 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Dodgers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Dodgers at 45% against FanDuel's implied 46% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.1pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Model
45%
Market
46%
Edge
+5.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.6%
—
+ Season record + form
55.3%
+2.7pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
54.7%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
53.4%
-1.3pp
Platt rescale
46.1%
-7.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.4%
-2.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.2%
+1.8pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.