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Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Recap

MLB · July 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.1pp  ·  closed at 2.46 (40.6%)

Pass Dog play
Baltimore Orioles
+122 on FanDuel
Model 44%
Market 45%
Edge +5.7 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.6pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.1%
+ Season record + form
51.1% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
43.2% -7.9pp
Final model probability
44.2% +1.0pp

Model performance on Baltimore Orioles picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
12
W - L
5 - 6
Win rate
45%
Avg CLV
+3.6pt
ROI
-11.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.