Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · July 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.1pp · closed at 2.46 (40.6%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
44%
Market
45%
Edge
+5.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.1%
—
+ Season record + form
51.1%
+2.0pp
Platt rescale
43.2%
-7.9pp
Final model probability
44.2%
+1.0pp
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