San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners Recap

MLB · July 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 39% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 2.44 (41.0%)

Small Play Dog play

Seattle Mariners

Model 39%

Market 41%

Edge +4.3 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

39.5% —

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