San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · July 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Diego Padres WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 46% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.9pp · closed at 2.02 (49.5%)
San Diego Padres
Model
46%
Market
47%
Edge
+3.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.2%
—
+ Season record + form
54.8%
+2.6pp
Calibration offset
53.1%
-1.7pp
Platt rescale
45.9%
-7.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.0%
-3.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.1%
+4.1pp
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