New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · July 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 58% against FanDuel's implied 60% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.4pp · closed at 1.68 (59.5%)

Small Play

Philadelphia Phillies

Model 58%

Market 60%

Edge +2.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

58.4% —

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