Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · July 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 43% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.8pp · closed at 2.28 (43.9%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
43%
Market
45%
Edge
+5.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.4%
—
+ Season record + form
49.7%
-1.7pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
48.6%
-1.1pp
Platt rescale
42.1%
-6.5pp
Final model probability
43.2%
+1.1pp
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