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Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · July 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 43% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.8pp  ·  closed at 2.28 (43.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+124 on FanDuel
Model 43%
Market 45%
Edge +5.0 pts

Solid 5.0% edge at FanDuel (2.24).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
51.4%
+ Season record + form
49.7% -1.7pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
48.6% -1.1pp
Platt rescale
42.1% -6.5pp
Final model probability
43.2% +1.1pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
10 - 15
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
-32.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.