Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · July 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +3.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.2pp · closed at 1.88 (53.2%)
Solid 3.4% edge at FanDuel (2.00).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Houston Astros picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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