Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · July 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Houston Astros LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +3.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.2pp · closed at 1.88 (53.2%)
Houston Astros
Model
49%
Market
50%
Edge
+3.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
53.2%
—
+ Season record + form
51.8%
-1.4pp
Platt rescale
44.1%
-7.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.3%
+1.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.8%
+3.5pp
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