Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · July 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.4pp · closed at 2.20 (45.5%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
45%
Market
45%
Edge
+6.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.1%
—
+ Season record + form
51.0%
+1.9pp
Platt rescale
44.0%
-7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.1%
-0.9pp
Final model probability
44.7%
+1.6pp
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