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Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · July 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 45% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.4pp  ·  closed at 2.20 (45.5%)

Small Play Dog play
Chicago White Sox
+124 on FanDuel
Model 45%
Market 45%
Edge +6.2 pts

Solid 6.2% edge at FanDuel (2.24).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.1%
+ Season record + form
51.0% +1.9pp
Platt rescale
44.0% -7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.1% -0.9pp
Final model probability
44.7% +1.6pp

Model performance on Chicago White Sox picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
20 - 13
Win rate
61%
Avg CLV
+4.6pt
ROI
+30.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.