American League @ National League Recap
MLB · July 14, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — National League LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked National League at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +5.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.9pp · closed at 2.59 (38.6%)
National League
+180 on FanDuel
Model
35%
Market
36%
Edge
+5.8 pts
Solid 5.8% edge at FanDuel (2.80).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
34.6%
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