Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · July 12, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Diego Padres WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.7pp · closed at 2.14 (46.7%)
San Diego Padres
Model
47%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
55.2%
—
+ Season record + form
54.4%
-0.8pp
Calibration offset
53.5%
-0.9pp
Platt rescale
46.3%
-7.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.1%
-4.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.8%
+4.7pp
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