Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · July 12, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 50% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.02 (49.5%)
New York Mets
-106 on FanDuel
Model
50%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.2 pts
Solid 2.2% edge at FanDuel (1.94).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
55.2%
—
+ Season record + form
54.4%
-0.8pp
Calibration offset
53.0%
-1.4pp
Platt rescale
45.6%
-7.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.2%
+4.6pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.