Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · July 12, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 36% against FanDuel's implied 37% — an edge of +6.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.9pp · closed at 2.97 (33.7%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
36%
Market
37%
Edge
+6.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.4%
—
+ Season record + form
38.7%
-0.7pp
Calibration offset
41.8%
+3.0pp
Platt rescale
36.2%
-5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.6%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.3%
+0.7pp
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