Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · July 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.7pp · closed at 2.62 (38.2%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
40%
Market
41%
Edge
+4.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
43.3%
—
Calibration offset
45.2%
+1.9pp
Platt rescale
39.2%
-6.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.1%
-1.1pp
Final model probability
39.8%
+1.7pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.