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Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · July 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.7pp  ·  closed at 2.62 (38.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+144 on FanDuel
Model 40%
Market 41%
Edge +4.9 pts

Solid 4.9% edge at FanDuel (2.44).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
43.3%
Calibration offset
45.2% +1.9pp
Platt rescale
39.2% -6.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.1% -1.1pp
Final model probability
39.8% +1.7pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
10 - 15
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
-32.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.