Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · July 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Texas Rangers WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +7.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.6pp · closed at 2.22 (45.1%)
Texas Rangers
Model
44%
Market
45%
Edge
+7.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
55.5%
—
+ Season record + form
54.8%
-0.7pp
Calibration offset
53.1%
-1.7pp
Platt rescale
46.1%
-7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.0%
-2.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.8%
-0.2pp
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