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Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · July 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Colorado Rockies WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp  ·  closed at 2.33 (42.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+132 on FanDuel
Model 42%
Market 43%
Edge +4.2 pts

Solid 4.2% edge at FanDuel (2.32).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
45.1%
+ Season record + form
46.0% +0.9pp
Calibration offset
47.0% +1.0pp
Platt rescale
40.2% -6.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.1% -1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.1% +3.0pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
21 - 22
Win rate
49%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
+17.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.