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Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins Recap

MLB · July 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Cleveland Guardians WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.3pp  ·  closed at 2.37 (42.2%)

Pass Dog play
Cleveland Guardians
+122 on FanDuel
Model 44%
Market 45%
Edge +6.5 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.6pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.4%
+ Season record + form
51.4% +2.0pp
Platt rescale
43.6% -7.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.2% +0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.7% -0.5pp

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
15 - 25
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+4.5pt
ROI
-17.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.