Athletics @ Chicago White Sox Recap
MLB · July 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 52% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.4pp · closed at 1.80 (55.6%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
52%
Market
53%
Edge
+3.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
56.4%
—
Calibration offset
54.1%
-2.3pp
Platt rescale
48.2%
-5.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.7%
+3.5pp
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