Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · July 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +6.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.8pp · closed at 2.05 (48.8%)

Small Play Dog play

Philadelphia Phillies

Model 49%

Market 50%

Edge +6.0 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

53.4% —

+ Season record + form

56.3% +2.9pp

Calibration offset

54.2% -2.1pp

Platt rescale

46.6% -7.6pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

48.1% +1.5pp

Final model probability

48.6% +0.5pp

Model performance on Philadelphia Phillies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

4 - 6

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+1.1pt

ROI

+3.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.