Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · July 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Philadelphia Phillies LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Philadelphia Phillies at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +6.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.8pp · closed at 2.05 (48.8%)
Philadelphia Phillies
Model
49%
Market
50%
Edge
+6.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
53.4%
—
+ Season record + form
56.3%
+2.9pp
Calibration offset
54.2%
-2.1pp
Platt rescale
46.6%
-7.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
48.1%
+1.5pp
Final model probability
48.6%
+0.5pp
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