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Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Recap

MLB · July 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 47% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.0pp  ·  closed at 2.06 (48.5%)

Small Play Dog play
St. Louis Cardinals
+106 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 49%
Edge +2.0 pts

Solid 2.0% edge at FanDuel (2.06).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
49.6%
+ Season record + form
47.3% -2.3pp
Calibration offset
48.1% +0.8pp
Platt rescale
41.3% -6.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.9% +1.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.2% +4.3pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
42
W - L
17 - 25
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+4.6pt
ROI
-25.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.