Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets Recap

MLB · July 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 43% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +4.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 2.22 (45.1%)

Small Play Dog play

Kansas City Royals

Model 43%

Market 44%

Edge +4.7 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

45.3% —

+ Season record + form

46.2% +0.9pp

Calibration offset

47.2% +1.0pp

Platt rescale

40.3% -6.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

43.4% +3.1pp

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.