Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Recap

MLB · July 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.1pp · closed at 2.14 (46.7%)

Small Play Dog play

Chicago Cubs

Model 46%

Market 48%

Edge +2.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

49.6% —

+ Season record + form

51.5% +1.9pp

Platt rescale

44.4% -7.1pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

41.8% -2.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

46.2% +4.4pp

Model performance on Chicago Cubs picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

5 - 6

Win rate

45%

Avg CLV

+3.0pt

ROI

+20.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.