Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · July 09, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago Cubs LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.1pp · closed at 2.14 (46.7%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
46%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.6%
—
+ Season record + form
51.5%
+1.9pp
Platt rescale
44.4%
-7.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.8%
-2.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.2%
+4.4pp
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