Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · July 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 45% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +4.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.9pp · closed at 2.28 (43.9%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
45%
Market
47%
Edge
+4.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.6%
—
+ Season record + form
47.8%
+1.2pp
Calibration offset
48.2%
+0.5pp
Platt rescale
41.4%
-6.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.4%
+2.0pp
Final model probability
44.6%
+1.2pp
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