Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets Recap

MLB · July 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +7.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.9pp · closed at 2.74 (36.5%)

Pass Dog play

Kansas City Royals

Model 40%

Market 41%

Edge +7.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

45.3% —

+ Season record + form

46.2% +0.9pp

Calibration offset

47.0% +0.8pp

Platt rescale

40.2% -6.8pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

39.9% -0.4pp

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.