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Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · July 07, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Colorado Rockies WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 27% against FanDuel's implied 29% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.4pp  ·  closed at 3.65 (27.4%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+250 on FanDuel
Model 27%
Market 29%
Edge +7.2 pts

Solid 7.2% edge at FanDuel (3.50). Elo agrees (-108 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
31.9%
+ Season record + form
29.6% -2.3pp
Calibration offset
35.4% +5.8pp
Platt rescale
30.9% -4.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
29.8% -1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
27.5% -2.3pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
21 - 22
Win rate
49%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
+17.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.