Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · July 08, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago Cubs WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 43% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 2.15 (46.5%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
43%
Market
47%
Edge
+2.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.6%
—
+ Season record + form
51.5%
+1.9pp
Platt rescale
44.4%
-7.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.8%
-2.6pp
Final model probability
43.5%
+1.7pp
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