Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Recap
MLB · July 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 47% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 2.12 (47.2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
47%
Market
49%
Edge
+2.7 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.6%
—
+ Season record + form
47.8%
+1.2pp
Calibration offset
48.4%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
41.5%
-6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.0%
+1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.3%
+4.3pp
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