Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals Recap
MLB · July 06, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Kansas City Royals WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 37% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.6pp · closed at 2.84 (35.2%)
Kansas City Royals
Model
37%
Market
39%
Edge
+5.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.6%
—
+ Season record + form
43.7%
-2.9pp
Calibration offset
45.2%
+1.5pp
Platt rescale
39.2%
-6.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.0%
-3.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
37.3%
+1.3pp
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