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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Recap

MLB · July 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.9pp  ·  closed at 2.43 (41.1%)

Pass Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+130 on FanDuel
Model 42%
Market 43%
Edge +6.6 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.8pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
51.9%
+ Season record + form
50.3% -1.6pp
Platt rescale
42.6% -7.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.7% -0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.3% +0.6pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
10 - 15
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
-32.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.