Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · July 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.9pp · closed at 2.43 (41.1%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
42%
Market
43%
Edge
+6.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.9%
—
+ Season record + form
50.3%
-1.6pp
Platt rescale
42.6%
-7.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.7%
-0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.3%
+0.6pp
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