Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros Recap

MLB · July 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Tampa Bay Rays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 49% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +4.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.1pp · closed at 2.02 (49.5%)

Small Play Dog play

Tampa Bay Rays

Model 49%

Market 51%

Edge +4.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

56.0% —

+ Season record + form

59.5% +3.5pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

59.0% -0.5pp

Calibration offset

56.4% -2.6pp

Platt rescale

46.9% -9.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.0% -0.9pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

49.1% +3.1pp

Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

16 - 15

Win rate

52%

Avg CLV

+1.8pt

ROI

+10.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.