San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · July 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 34% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.8pp · closed at 3.29 (30.4%)
San Diego Padres
Model
34%
Market
35%
Edge
+5.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.4%
—
+ Season record + form
38.7%
-0.7pp
Calibration offset
41.7%
+3.0pp
Platt rescale
36.4%
-5.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
33.5%
-2.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
34.2%
+0.7pp
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