San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · July 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 34% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.8pp · closed at 3.29 (30.4%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 2.5pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on San Diego Padres picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.