Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · July 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 53% against FanDuel's implied 55% — an edge of +5.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.4pp · closed at 1.87 (53.5%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
53%
Market
55%
Edge
+5.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
52.8%
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