Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers Recap

MLB · July 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 47% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +6.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.3pp · closed at 2.13 (46.9%)

Small Play Dog play

Texas Rangers

Model 47%

Market 48%

Edge +6.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

57.3% —

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

56.5% -0.8pp

Calibration offset

54.7% -1.8pp

Platt rescale

47.3% -7.4pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.2% -1.1pp

Final model probability

47.4% +1.2pp

Model performance on Texas Rangers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

5 - 8

Win rate

38%

Avg CLV

+2.9pt

ROI

-17.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.