Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Recap
MLB · July 05, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +0.9pp · closed at 2.18 (45.9%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
42%
Market
43%
Edge
+4.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.7%
—
+ Season record + form
47.9%
+1.2pp
Calibration offset
48.3%
+0.4pp
Platt rescale
42.0%
-6.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.3%
-2.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.9%
+2.6pp
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