Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · July 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.7pp · closed at 2.44 (41.0%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
40%
Market
41%
Edge
+4.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.0%
—
+ Season record + form
44.5%
+0.6pp
Calibration offset
46.0%
+1.5pp
Platt rescale
39.5%
-6.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.9%
-1.6pp
Final model probability
40.1%
+2.2pp
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