Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners Recap

MLB · July 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.7pp · closed at 2.44 (41.0%)

Small Play Dog play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 40%

Market 41%

Edge +4.4 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

44.0% —

+ Season record + form

44.5% +0.6pp

Calibration offset

46.0% +1.5pp

Platt rescale

39.5% -6.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

37.9% -1.6pp

Final model probability

40.1% +2.2pp

Model performance on Toronto Blue Jays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

11 - 12

Win rate

48%

Avg CLV

+3.7pt

ROI

+12.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.