San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · July 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 32% against FanDuel's implied 33% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp · closed at 3.35 (29.8%)

Small Play Dog play

San Diego Padres

Model 32%

Market 33%

Edge +6.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

39.4% —

+ Season record + form

38.7% -0.7pp

Calibration offset

41.7% +3.0pp

Platt rescale

36.4% -5.3pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

32.8% -3.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

31.8% -1.0pp

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