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Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

MLB · July 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Arizona Diamondbacks LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 56% against FanDuel's implied 57% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +1.6pp  ·  closed at 1.72 (58.1%)

Small Play
Arizona Diamondbacks
-133 on FanDuel
Model 56%
Market 57%
Edge +2.6 pts

Solid 2.6% edge at FanDuel (1.75).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability
55.7%

Model performance on Arizona Diamondbacks picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
30
W - L
16 - 14
Win rate
53%
Avg CLV
+3.8pt
ROI
-5.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.