Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · July 04, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +4.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.6pp · closed at 2.10 (47.6%)
Texas Rangers
Model
49%
Market
50%
Edge
+4.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
57.3%
—
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
56.6%
-0.7pp
Calibration offset
54.7%
-1.9pp
Platt rescale
47.3%
-7.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.2%
-1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.7%
+2.5pp
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