San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · July 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp · closed at 2.84 (35.2%)
San Diego Padres
Model
37%
Market
38%
Edge
+7.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.4%
—
+ Season record + form
38.7%
-0.7pp
Calibration offset
41.8%
+3.1pp
Platt rescale
36.5%
-5.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
37.0%
+0.6pp
Final model probability
37.0%
+0.1pp
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