New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Recap
MLB · July 03, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Atlanta Braves WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 53% against FanDuel's implied 54% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.2pp · closed at 1.97 (50.8%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)
How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.
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