Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · July 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 34% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.9pp · closed at 2.92 (34.2%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
34%
Market
35%
Edge
+4.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
38.3%
—
+ Season record + form
37.4%
-0.9pp
Calibration offset
40.8%
+3.4pp
Platt rescale
35.2%
-5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
33.1%
-2.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.6%
+0.5pp
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