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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners Recap

MLB · July 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 34% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +4.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.9pp  ·  closed at 2.92 (34.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+188 on FanDuel
Model 34%
Market 35%
Edge +4.4 pts

Solid 4.4% edge at FanDuel (2.88). Elo agrees (-59 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
38.3%
+ Season record + form
37.4% -0.9pp
Calibration offset
40.8% +3.4pp
Platt rescale
35.2% -5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
33.1% -2.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.6% +0.5pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
10 - 15
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
-32.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.