Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · July 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Texas Rangers WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp · closed at 1.97 (50.8%)
Texas Rangers
Model
51%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
57.3%
—
Calibration offset
54.8%
-2.5pp
Platt rescale
47.4%
-7.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.0%
-1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.6%
+4.6pp
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