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Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers Recap

MLB · July 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Texas Rangers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.3pp  ·  closed at 1.97 (50.8%)

Small Play
Texas Rangers
-108 on FanDuel
Model 51%
Market 52%
Edge +2.3 pts

Solid 2.3% edge at FanDuel (1.93).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
57.3%
Calibration offset
54.8% -2.5pp
Platt rescale
47.4% -7.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.0% -1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.6% +4.6pp

Model performance on Texas Rangers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
12
W - L
5 - 7
Win rate
42%
Avg CLV
+4.3pt
ROI
-25.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.