Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · July 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 41% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +6.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.6pp · closed at 2.36 (42.4%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
41%
Market
42%
Edge
+6.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.0%
—
+ Season record + form
47.1%
+1.1pp
Calibration offset
47.8%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
41.0%
-6.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.9%
-1.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.0%
+1.1pp
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