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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics Recap

MLB · July 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Athletics WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 38% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +6.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.1pp  ·  closed at 2.46 (40.6%)

Small Play Dog play
Athletics
+164 on FanDuel
Model 38%
Market 38%
Edge +6.9 pts

Solid 6.9% edge at FanDuel (2.64). Elo agrees (-66 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
44.0%
+ Season record + form
40.6% -3.4pp
Calibration offset
43.1% +2.5pp
Platt rescale
36.8% -6.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.1% -0.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
37.7% +1.6pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
35
W - L
14 - 21
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+3.6pt
ROI
-13.2%

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