Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · July 02, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Cleveland Guardians WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +3.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.3pp · closed at 1.87 (53.5%)

Small Play Dog play

Cleveland Guardians

Model 49%

Market 50%

Edge +3.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

53.3% —

+ Season record + form

52.1% -1.2pp

Calibration offset

51.4% -0.7pp

Platt rescale

43.9% -7.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

45.4% +1.5pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

49.0% +3.6pp

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

7 - 23

Win rate

23%

Avg CLV

+3.8pt

ROI

-60.6%

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