San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · June 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Arizona Diamondbacks WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Arizona Diamondbacks at 52% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.9pp · closed at 1.91 (52.4%)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Model
52%
Market
53%
Edge
+2.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
60.1%
—
+ Season record + form
60.6%
+0.5pp
Calibration offset
57.2%
-3.3pp
Platt rescale
49.7%
-7.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
47.7%
-2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.9%
+4.2pp
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