San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs Recap
MLB · June 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.1pp · closed at 2.33 (42.9%)
San Diego Padres
Model
43%
Market
43%
Edge
+4.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.0%
—
+ Season record + form
48.3%
+1.3pp
Calibration offset
48.6%
+0.3pp
Platt rescale
41.8%
-6.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
39.4%
-2.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.0%
+3.6pp
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